
The UK is forecast to experience weaker growth and higher inflation due to the impact of the war in the Middle East, according to an influential global policy group.
It means this year the UK is expected to have the second-highest inflation rate among the G7 group of advanced economies - at 4%, the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said.
The body has also downgraded forecasts for many of the world's biggest economies due to the US-Israel war with Iran.
A prolonged conflict could trigger "significant energy shortages" globally, it warned, while if the sharp rise in fertiliser prices is sustained crop yields will be impacted and food prices will soar next year.
The OECD's new forecast for UK inflation is up from the rate of 2.5% it had predicted at its previous report in December.
It then forecasts inflation to drop to 2.6% in 2027 - still up from its previous projection of 2.1%.
Economic growth is now forecast to be 0.7% in the UK this year, down from 1.2% it had previously expected. Its forecast for 2027 is unchanged.
In early March the government's official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), cut its expected growth rate for 2026 to 1.1% from the 1.4% it predicted in last year's Budget.
But this forecast was made before the Iran war, which the OBR said could have a "very significant" impact on economies.
Among G7 countries, only the US is predicted to have higher inflation than the UK in the OECD's forecast, while only Italy is expected to see weaker growth.
Global growth is expected to fall to 2.9% this year before nudging up to 3% in 2027. And inflation across the G20 countries is predicted to be 4%, up from previously expected, dropping back to 2.7% next year.
The OECD said its predictions depend on the assumption that the current energy market disruption eases, with oil, gas and fertiliser prices falling from summer onwards.
It said measures from governments to cushion households from the impact of higher energy prices "should be timely, well-targeted on households most in need and viable firms, preserve incentives to lower energy use and have clear expiry mechanisms".
Policies that improve domestic energy use and lower reliance on imported fossil fuels over the medium term were a priority, it added.
The forecast comes as UK clothing retailer Next warned it was likely to have to raise prices for customers if the Iran war persists.
It said overseas sales had been strong up to when the conflict in the Middle East broke out, and instability may continue to restrain growth in that region.
LATEST POSTS
- 1
Great DSLR Cameras for Photography Devotees - 2
My prescription costs what?! Pharmacists offer tips that could reduce your out-of-pocket drug costs - 3
Quandoo to shut restaurant booking platform by end of 2026 - 4
Study shows no clear link between low-fat dairy and dementia risk - 5
Netanyahu vows to ‘return Negev to Israel,’ pledges settlement growth during visit
Geminid meteors streak under green sky | Space photo of the day for Dec. 19, 2025
Every year, she thanks the trooper for the arrest that led to her sobriety
The Significance of a Land Lawyer for Your Business
Texas cities have some of the highest preterm birth rates in the US, highlighting maternal health crisis nationwide
FOX8 Meteorologist Charles Ewing makes his 2025-26 winter weather predictions!
CDC advisory panel delays vote on hepatitis B vaccines after unruly meeting
Manual for Individual accounting Rudiments for Fledglings
EU delays signing of Mercosur free trade deal
Zelensky names spy chief to head presidential office after corruption row













